That’s One Big Beautiful Bill for man, one giant leap closer to The Future Poor
The “One Big Beautiful Bill” is an 870 page piece of legislation that is similar in length to War and Peace by Leo Tolstoy or two-thirds of the Lord of the Rings Trilogy. As someone that recently published a book that isn’t even 20% of that length - I can tell you that is a massive piece of work. While the length of the bill isn’t my main concern, though I do wonder how many lawmakers actually read that massive thing, I am more concerned with how it relates to relieving or advancing the future poor scenario.
For a reminder, the future poor’s thesis is that 9 out of 10 people under the age of 50 and making less than $150,000 a year are going to be poor in their senior years.
So, how does this massive legislation address that thesis?
One step of relief and a host of steps backward only fast tracking the thesis.
Let’s start with the good news. Income tax on social security is one of the wild things about retirement in America. Most people have no idea this exists and so it is a relief the bill adds an additional deduction for seniors to offset potential taxes owed. That is helpful and should provide a few extra dollars for seniors.
That is the small step of progress. The rest does not seem so great.
The first issue comes in recent updated reports around Social Security running out of money. This has long been on the watchlist with predictions saying 2035 or 2036. The SSA notes that they will only be able to pay about 80% of the benefits owed by that time - a problem for seniors on limited incomes. What new updates and understanding about these law changes mean is that many feel that timeline should shrink to 2032 or 2033. That is not good news for a program that so many rely on and the growing number of seniors that rely on Social Security for their entire income. This does not sound great to those that are going to be hitting their senior years after those dates either and why there is growing concern about the future and makes economic stability (a key component in the social determinants of health) shaky.
The second serious move involves social insurance programs related to healthcare. Healthcare is the single greatest expense besides housing for seniors. It is estimated that seniors will incur over $130,000 in additional medical expenses not covered by insurance or social insurance while in their senior years. That number does not include any long-term care expenses. Access and quality health care is another component to our overall health as a society. Current provisions look to eliminate over $1trillion and over 10 million people from Medicaid and Child Insurance Health Program by the same time Social Security should be running out of money. What is our societal response to how we provide healthcare to those that are unable to supply it themselves?
Food insecurity becomes a third component and critical to poverty now and in the future. Almost 20% of the recipients of SNAP (food stamps) are over 60 years old. We know from numerous studies the relationship and value of nutrition as it correlates to poverty in America. We know there are “food deserts” in lower socio-economic situations. We know this creates health issues. We know this has direct correlation to life expectancy, health conditions and cognitive decline all of which only complicate the future poor scenario. When these programs are eliminated and participants are denied, we set many up for a fast track to poverty beyond simple economics.
As I survey this new legislation I ask myself if it helps put us on a path to fixing the future poor and it is hard to see that as an outcome. This concerns me as it relates to the legislation and it concerns me as more and more of us are moving on this path to poverty.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/whats-in-trump-big-beautiful-bill-senate-version/
https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/06/myth-vs-fact-the-one-big-beautiful-bill/
https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/03/business/trump-big-beautiful-bill-business-economy
As always, if you come across a financially related article you’d like to send my way please do!
Best place to send them is to me.
More next time!
Jonathan